Thursday, 29 August 2013

A question of preference

In response Crikey Pollbludger Preferential voting discussion

You read way too much into the so called preference deals. Preferences are not a reflection of policy or allegiance. Its a bit like reading a horoscope or Green tea leaves.

Preferences come into their element mainly as a result of the above-the-line ticket voting system. ATL voting is the only way the Greens can direct their preferences.

What is evident is that the minor parties realise where the wealth of vote mining is. All minor parties have preferenced each other locking out the main players Labor, LNP and the Greens. The Greens are no longer seen as a member of the minor party grouping.

Optional Preferential Voting (OPV)

In Victoria Western metro OPV delivered a seat to the Greens. A large number of Family First, DLP and Christian Alliance voters preferenced each pother to make up the minimum five preferences, which was heavily promoted by the Victorian Electoral Commission. What they did not know was that by not continuing on their preferences they inadvertently elected the Greens to the last seat in Western metro ahead of the Labor Party. Had they preferenced Labor’s third candidate Bob smith would have been elected. The Greens were elected by default having slightly more votes then the ALP surplus after preferences.

Segmented distribution

What is of more concern is the method of distribution of preferences from candidates excluded in the count. The method of segmentation, skipping candidates and the dealing from the bottom of the deck.

The issue of segmentation distribution cost the greens a Senate seat in Queensland in 2007
When a candidate is excluded from the count their vote should be distributed as if the excluded candidate had not stood.
If a vote has a preference for a continuing candidate then it should be allocated to that candidate and if need be form part of that candidates surplus before being redistributed to other candidates. IE if I vote for the DLP and then preference Labors number 1 or 2 than my vote should form part of my chosen candidates surplus and distributed accordingly.

This can best be achieved by implementing a reiterative count where the ballot is reset and restarted on every exclusion and only weighted surplus distributed on every iteration. One iteration per excluded candidate until all positions are filled.

In the past under a manual system a reiterative count would have been prohibitive. With the use of computer counting system this is not longer an issue of concern.

Had we had a reiterative counting system in Queensland in 2007 The Greens would have been elected to the Senate in the final position. It needs to be said that a reiterative voting system does not favor any one party over another, It just that in 2007 The Greens lost a seat as a result of the method and order of distribution.

This can be tested by recounting the 2007 QLD Senate excluding all candidates except the last seven standing (3 ALP, 2LNO and 1 Grn)and distributing all votes according to the first available allocated preference.

A reiterative counting system also allows for an adjusted floating quota should optional preferential voting be adopted.

There are other issues in the way Senate preferences are counted such as the non-weighted surplus transfer value the dropping off of remainders etc. that also need to be address

One issue that needs more discussion is the Droop Quota.

Why divide the cake by seven and throw away or lock up a slice when we could divide the cake by six.

As it stands the party that forms the wasted quota has no say in who should represent them. Under a multi member proportional representation system there is not overriding justification that merits the continued practice and use of the Droop quota.

I definitely do not think OPV should be allowed in the above-the-line Group Ticketing system

I can see no reason why Voters should not allowed to preferential vote above the line other than the time and resources required to count the vote.

Our preferential system is the strength of our voting system. It is what puts us ahead of the pack. It avoids the need for a run-off ballot as is the case in various European presidential systems.

Fix it  or scape it.

From my point of view if we can not fix these flaws in the way the system operates and the vote is counted then we might as well adopt a party list system as suggested by William Bowie. But my preference is to fix the system and continue to support preferential voting.

Tuesday, 27 August 2013

ABC Senate Calculator shows WIkileaks in good position to pickup a seat from the Greens

Why has Antony Green  ABC not published the comment below?  Is he engaged in political censorship or down playing the potential success of Wikileaks Party embarrassed that his previous claim could be proven wrong, His won Calculator shows that Wikileaks can win a seat in WA.

Great to see the ABC calculator up and running

The ABC calculator shows Wikileaks is in a strong position to win in Western Australia with just 2% of the vote. at the expense of the Greens who are polling around 9% (-5).

The 5% loss to the Greens has to go somewhere.

The ALP and the LNP are expected to poll more or less the same in 2010.

Wikileaks picks up most of the preferences from SMK LDP HMP ASXP SPA KAP SPP and DEM early in the count and also secondary preferences from other parties once FFP is excluded

The likelihood of Wikileaks out polling the Greens and winning the sixth seat explains much of the misconceptions and misleading statements by the Greens who are now attacking Wikileaks.
What is you assessment or Wikileaks chances in WA?

On another issue re design of the ABC calculator:

Is it possible to implement a data population ULR feed, as is the case in the ABC HoR Pendulum calculator? This would make it much more useful.

Thanks again

Monday, 26 August 2013

TAS Senate Group Preference Flow

It is said that Everybody in Tasmania has a member of the family in public office. It is the most over governed state in Australia. The home of Bob Brown fomer leader and patron of the Greens and maverick Member for Denison, Andrew Wilkie.

The Greens are expected to lose support this round but will still remain above quota

The question is will the ALP hold on to three seats or will they lose a seat to an independent group? 

The Liberal Party is expected to retain two senate seats. Prefernce flows are a mixed batch with the ALP having the edge over the Liberal Party.  We expect no change in overall results between 2010 and 2013 

However that is all ways depends on the extent of the swing against the ALP who also holds control of the State Parliament. Family First has a chance.  Had Wikileaks ran in this seat then this State would have been much more interesting to watch.

ABC State Seat Historical voting statistics used as a base in analysis and ABC Senate Calculator


Candidate Party
1 Carol BROWN Australian Labor Party
2 Richard COLBECK Liberal Party
3 Peter WHISH-WILSON Australian Greens
4 Catryna BILYK Australian Labor Party
5 David BUSHBY Liberal Party
6 Lin THORP Australian Labor Party

ID Group Name Group Preference Flow
 A Country Alliance  ASXP   LP   AFLP   ALP   ODR   FFP   GRN
 B Liberal Democrats  ODR   FFP   ASXP   AFLP   LP   ALP   GRN
 C Australian Labor Party  ALP   GRN   ASXP   FFP   ODR   AFLP   LP
 D Rise Up Australia Party  FFP   AFLP   ODR   LP   ALP   ASXP   GRN
 E Liberal  LP   FFP   AFLP   ODR   ALP   ASXP   GRN
 F Palmer United Party  FFP   GRN   ASXP   AFLP   ODR   LP   ALP
 G Australian Christians  FFP   AFLP   LP   ODR   ALP   GRN   ASXP
 H DLP Democratic Labour  AFLP   ODR   FFP   LP   ALP   ASXP   GRN
 I Pirate Party  GRN   ASXP   AFLP   ALP   LP   ODR   FFP
 J Australian Greens  GRN   ASXP   ALP   FFP   LP   AFLP   ODR
 K Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party  ASXP   AFLP   ALP   GRN   FFP   ODR   LP
 L Shooters and Fishers  AFLP   ASXP   FFP   ODR   ALP   LP   GRN
 M Australian Independents  FFP   ASXP   AFLP   ODR   GRN   LP   ALP
 N Sex Party  ASXP   AFLP   ALP   GRN   LP   ODR   FFP
 O Senator Online (Internet Voting Bills/Issues)  AFLP   FFP   ASXP   ODR   GRN   ALP   LP
 P Katter's Australian Party  FFP   AFLP   ODR   LP   GRN   ALP   ASXP
 Q No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics  FFP   AFLP   ASXP   ODR   ALP   LP   GRN
 R Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party  AFLP   FFP   ASXP   ODR   ALP   LP   GRN
 S Stable Population Party  ASXP   AFLP   FFP   GRN   ALP   LP   ODR
 S Stable Population Party  ASXP   AFLP   FFP   ALP   LP   GRN   ODR
 S Stable Population Party  ASXP   AFLP   FFP   LP   GRN   ALP   ODR
 U The Australian Republicans  ODR   ASXP   FFP   AFLP   LP   ALP   GRN
 V Smokers Rights  FFP   AFLP   ODR   LP   ALP   GRN   ASXP
 W Family First  ODR   FFP   ASXP   AFLP   LP   ALP   GRN

Sunday, 25 August 2013

SA Senate Group Preference Flow

South Australia's Senate race is subject to the X-Factor.  Independent Senator Nick Xenophon sets the tone and rhythm of this election. Some polls put him as high as 20%. (Quota is 14.34%) What is certain is Nick Xenophon has a quota in his own right, Whats not known is the extent of his surplus. 

The ABC calculator uses the 2010 data as their default, This is misleading as Xenophon did not run in 2010 so you need to look at the 2007 historical statistics to determine your base.

The last seat is not guaranteed up most likely

South Australia 

Candidate Party
1 Penny WONG Australian Labor Party
2 Cory BERNARDI Liberal Party
3 Don FARRELL Australian Labor Party
4 Simon BIRMINGHAM Liberal Party
5 Nick XENOPHON Nick Xenophon Group
6 Sarah HANSON-YOUNG Australian Greens
Group Preference flow

ID Group Name Group Preference
 A Socialist Equality Party  GRN   TCS   ALP   LP   FFP   XEN
 A Socialist Equality Party  ALP   LP   FFP   XEN   GRN   TCS
 A Socialist Equality Party  LP   FFP   XEN   GRN   TCS   ALP
 B Family First  FFP   TCS   LP   ALP   XEN   GRN
 C Australian Democrats  GRN   LP   ALP   XEN   TCS   FFP
 D Secular Party of Australia  XEN   GRN   ALP   LP   TCS   FFP
 E Liberal Democrats  FFP   TCS   LP   XEN   ALP   GRN
 F Palmer United Party  GRN   FFP   LP   TCS   XEN   ALP
 G Nick Xenophon Group  XEN   LP   FFP   ALP   GRN   TCS
 G Nick Xenophon Group  XEN   ALP   GRN   FFP   LP   TCS
 H National Party  XEN   FFP   LP   TCS   ALP   GRN
 I  GRN   ALP   LP   FFP   XEN   TCS
 J DLP Democratic Labour  TCS   FFP   XEN   LP   ALP   GRN
 K Rise Up Australia Party  TCS   FFP   LP   XEN   ALP   GRN
 L  TCS   GRN   FFP   XEN   ALP   LP
 M Country Alliance  TCS   LP   ALP   FFP   XEN   GRN
 N Sex Party  TCS   GRN   XEN   ALP   LP   FFP
 O Australian Independents  FFP   TCS   GRN   XEN   LP   ALP
 P Australian Greens  GRN   ALP   FFP   TCS   XEN   LP
 Q Animal Justice Party  TCS   FFP   XEN   GRN   ALP   LP
 R No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics  TCS   FFP   LP   GRN   XEN   ALP
 S Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party  TCS   GRN   ALP   FFP   XEN   LP
 T Drug Law Reform  GRN   ALP   LP   XEN   TCS   FFP
 U One Nation  TCS   FFP   LP   XEN   ALP   GRN
 V Stable Population Party  FFP   GRN   ALP   LP   XEN   TCS
 V Stable Population Party  FFP   ALP   LP   GRN   XEN   TCS
 V Stable Population Party  FFP   LP   GRN   ALP   XEN   TCS
 W Australian Christians  TCS   FFP   LP   ALP   XEN   GRN
 X Shooters and Fishers  TCS   FFP   LP   XEN   ALP   GRN
 Y Katter's Australian Party  TCS   FFP   GRN   LP   ALP   XEN
 Z Smokers Rights  FFP   TCS   LP   XEN   ALP   GRN
AA Voluntary Euthanasia Party  GRN   XEN   ALP   LP   TCS   FFP
AB Australian Labor Party  ALP   GRN   FFP   TCS   LP   XEN
AC Building Australia Party  TCS   FFP   XEN   LP   ALP   GRN
AD Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party  TCS   FFP   XEN   LP   ALP   GRN
AD Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party  TCS   FFP   XEN   ALP   LP   GRN
AE Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party  TCS   FFP   LP   XEN   ALP   GRN
AG Liberal  LP   FFP   XEN   TCS   ALP   GRN

Saturday, 24 August 2013

QLD Senate Group Preference Flow

Queensland is a mixed fruit basket. 

This is one seat that is hard top call but by all analysis the Greens are not in season

It is hard to quantify the impact of Clive Palmer and Bob Katter's Party which will impact on the result

A surprise to watch for is the possibility of Rudd being elected to the Senate.  No not Kevin by Greg Rudd on the UN1 Group  Rudd is well placed for preferences but not sure if he will survive the count to collect

We will not be predicting this as this is a seat that will be decided by the quirks of the system and the distortions in the segmentation distribution and the calculation of the Surplus Transfer Value

This is one to most definitely get a copy of the Below the Line Preference data files, without it it would be impossible to scrutinise this state vote

ABC State Seat Historical voting statistics used as a base in analysis and ABC Senate Calculator

 2013 Queensland Senate Preference Flow

ID Group Name Preference Flow
 A Animal Justice Party  ASXP   FFP   UN1   DLP   GRN   ALP   LNP   PUP   KAP
 B Liberal National Party of Queensland  LNP   DLP   FFP   PUP   UN1   KAP   ALP   ASXP   GRN
 C  UN1   KAP   FFP   DLP   PUP   GRN   ASXP   LNP   ALP
 D Australian Independents  ASXP   DLP   UN1   FFP   KAP   GRN   LNP   PUP   ALP
 E Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party  ASXP   UN1   KAP   ALP   GRN   FFP   DLP   PUP   LNP
 F Australian Voice  ASXP   DLP   FFP   PUP   LNP   UN1   KAP   ALP   GRN
 G Australian Labor Party  ALP   KAP   GRN   ASXP   DLP   UN1   PUP   FFP   LNP
 H One Nation  DLP   FFP   UN1   KAP   PUP   GRN   ASXP   LNP   ALP
 H One Nation  DLP   FFP   UN1   KAP   PUP   GRN   ASXP   ALP   LNP
 I Australia First Party  FFP   ASXP   KAP   DLP   PUP   ALP   LNP   ALP   UN1   GRN
 J Socialist Equality Party  GRN   UN1   KAP   FFP   DLP   ASXP   PUP   LNP   ALP
 J Socialist Equality Party  LNP   ALP   GRN   UN1   KAP   FFP   DLP   ASXP   PUP
 J Socialist Equality Party  ALP   GRN   UN1   KAP   FFP   DLP   ASXP   PUP   LNP
 K Australian Protectionist Party  KAP   DLP   FFP   UN1   PUP   ASXP   LNP   ALP   GRN
 L Building Australia Party  ASXP   FFP   DLP   UN1   KAP   PUP   LNP   ALP   GRN
 M Senator Online (Internet Voting Bills/Issues)  ASXP   FFP   DLP   KAP   PUP   UN1   LNP   GRN   ALP
 N Liberal Democrats  UN1   KAP   FFP   ASXP   DLP   PUP   LNP   ALP   GRN
 O Stop The Greens  UN1   KAP   FFP   ASXP   DLP   PUP   LNP   ALP   GRN
 P Pirate Party  GRN   ASXP   UN1   DLP   ALP   LNP   KAP   PUP   FFP
 Q The Greens  GRN   ASXP   ALP   PUP   DLP   UN1   FFP   KAP   LNP
 R Stop CSG  ASXP   FFP   GRN   KAP   ALP   PUP   LNP   DLP   UN1
 S Stable Population Party  FFP   ASXP   KAP   UN1   GRN   ALP   LNP   DLP   PUP
 S Stable Population Party  FFP   ASXP   KAP   UN1   ALP   LNP   GRN   DLP   PUP
 S Stable Population Party  FFP   ASXP   KAP   UN1   LNP   GRN   ALP   DLP   PUP
 T Australian Christians  DLP   FFP   PUP   LNP   UN1   KAP   ALP   GRN   ASXP
 U  UN1   PUP   GRN   KAP   FFP   LNP   ALP   DLP   ASXP
 V Katter's Australian Party  KAP   UN1   DLP   FFP   PUP   ALP   LNP   ASXP   GRN
 W The Australian Republicans  UN1   KAP   FFP   ASXP   DLP   PUP   LNP   ALP   GRN
 X Family First  FFP   UN1   DLP   PUP   KAP   LNP   ALP   GRN   ASXP
 Y Australian Democrats  ASXP   KAP   GRN   FFP   DLP   PUP   ALP   LNP   UN1
 Y Australian Democrats  ASXP   KAP   GRN   FFP   DLP   PUP   LNP   ALP   UN1
 Z Democratic Labour Party (DLP)  DLP   KAP   FFP   LNP   ALP   PUP   UN1   ALP   ASXP   GRN
AA Sex Party  ASXP   UN1   GRN   KAP   ALP   LNP   PUP   DLP   FFP
AB Shooters and Fishers  FFP   ASXP   UN1   DLP   KAP   PUP   LNP   ALP   GRN
AC Uniting Australia Party  FFP   KAP   UN1   DLP   LNP   ASXP   ALP   GRN   PUP
AD Rise Up Australia Party  DLP   FFP   LNP   PUP   KAP   ALP   UN1   ASXP   GRN
AE No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics  FFP   DLP   ASXP   KAP   PUP   UN1   LNP   ALP   GRN
AF Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party  DLP   LNP   FFP   KAP   PUP   ALP   UN1   ASXP   GRN
AG Palmer United Party  PUP   UN1   FFP   GRN   ASXP   KAP   LNP   DLP   ALP
AH Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party  FFP   ASXP   KAP   PUP   UN1   DLP   ALP   LNP   GRN
AH Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party  FFP   ASXP   KAP   PUP   UN1   DLP   LNP   ALP   GRN
AI Smokers Rights  UN1   KAP   FFP   ASXP   DLP   PUP   LNP   ALP   GRN
AJ Secular Party of Australia  ASXP   GRN   ALP   UN1   LNP   PUP   KAP   DLP   FFP