NSW Senate Group Preference Flow

Sex Party has the potential of being elected in NSW based on analysis of the Group ticket preferences

The Liberal party is expected to win three Senate seats and the ALP should hold on to two seats,  The battle for the last seat will be determined on preferences with the Greens falling below quota. The Greens do not favour well on the preference flow with Wikileaks and Sex Party place a head of the Greens if the Greens are unable to secure a quota in their own right and the ALP surplus is low then Sex Party is best placed to win its first Senate seat in NSW

Analyses undertaken using the ABC Senate calculator based on 2010 Figures with adjustments to take into consideration new parties and shift in support from the ALP to the  Liberal Party.  Support for Wikileaks is expected to come primarily from the Greens Primary vote which explains why thw Greens are hell bent on attacking Wikileaks where possible.


See ABC State Seat Historical voting statistics used as a base in analysis

New South Wales

	Candidate	Party
1	Marise PAYNE	Liberal Party
2	Bob CARR	Australian Labor Party
3	John WILLIAMS	The Nationals
4	Doug CAMERON	Australian Labor Party
5	Arthur SINODINOS	Liberal Party
6	Graeme DUNNE	Australian Sex Party

Group Ticket Preference Flow

ID  Group Name Group Preference Flow  A  Liberal Democrats  WKP  KAP  PUP  DLP  FFP  LPNP  ASP  ALP  GRN  B  No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics  ASP  DLP  FFP  WKP  KAP  PUP  ALP  LPNP  GRN  C  Democratic Labour Party (DLP)  DLP  KAP  FFP  PUP  ASP  ALP  LPNP  WKP  GRN  D  Senator Online (Internet Voting Bills/Issues)  ASP  FFP  WKP  PUP  KAP  DLP  ALP  LPNP  GRN  E  Voluntary Euthanasia Party  WKP  GRN  PUP  KAP  DLP  ASP  FFP  ALP  LPNP  F    ALP  LPNP  GRN  WKP  PUP  KAP  DLP  ASP  FFP  G  Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party  WKP  KAP  GRN  ALP  ASP  FFP  DLP  PUP  LPNP  G  Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party  WKP  KAP  ALP  GRN  ASP  FFP  DLP  PUP  LPNP  G  Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party  WKP  KAP  GRN  ALP  ASP  FFP  DLP  PUP  LPNP  H  Carers Alliance  LPNP  WKP  DLP  FFP  ALP  ASP  PUP  KAP  GRN  I  The Wikileaks Party  WKP  ASP  GRN  ALP  FFP  DLP  LPNP  PUP  KAP  J  Rise Up Australia Party  DLP  FFP  ASP  LPNP  PUP  KAP  ALP  WKP  GRN  K  Future Party  WKP  GRN  ALP  LPNP  PUP  ASP  KAP  DLP  FFP  L  Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group)  ASP  KAP  DLP  FFP  PUP  LPNP  ALP  WKP  GRN  M  Labor  ALP  GRN  ASP  WKP  KAP  DLP  FFP  PUP  LPNP  N  Katter's Australian Party  KAP  DLP  PUP  WKP  ASP  FFP  LPNP  ALP  GRN  O  Australian Voice  ASP  FFP  WKP  DLP  PUP  KAP  LPNP  ALP  GRN  P  Sex Party  WKP  ASP  GRN  ALP  KAP  PUP  LPNP  FFP  DLP  Q  Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party  ASP  FFP  DLP  KAP  PUP  ALP  LPNP  WKP  GRN  R  The Greens  GRN  WKP  ALP  PUP  KAP  LPNP  DLP  FFP  ASP  S  Palmer United Party  PUP  FFP  LPNP  DLP  WKP  KAP  GRN  ASP  ALP  T  Building Australia Party  FFP  ASP  WKP  DLP  KAP  PUP  LPNP  ALP  GRN  U  Uniting Australia Party  ASP  WKP  FFP  DLP  KAP  LPNP  ALP  GRN  PUP  V  Stop The Greens  WKP  KAP  PUP  DLP  FFP  LPNP  ASP  ALP  GRN  W  Smokers Rights  WKP  KAP  PUP  DLP  FFP  LPNP  ASP  ALP  GRN  X  Bullet Train For Australia  WKP  DLP  ASP  FFP  KAP  PUP  GRN  ALP  LPNP  Y  Liberal  LPNP  ASP  DLP  FFP  PUP  KAP  ALP  WKP  GRN  Z  Australian Protectionist Party  KAP  ASP  DLP  FFP  PUP  WKP  LPNP  ALP  GRN AA  Animal Justice Party  FFP  WKP  PUP  GRN  ALP  LPNP  DLP  KAP  ASP AB  Australia First Party  FFP  ASP  WKP  KAP  DLP  PUP  ALP  LPNP  GRN AC  Australian Independents  ASP  FFP  WKP  DLP  KAP  PUP  GRN  LPNP  ALP AD  Drug Law Reform  WKP  GRN  ALP  LPNP  DLP  KAP  PUP  FFP  ASP AE  Socialist Equality Party  ALP  KAP  GRN  PUP  LPNP  FFP  ASP  DLP  WKP AE  Socialist Equality Party  GRN  PUP  LPNP  FFP  ASP  DLP  WKP  ALP  KAP AE  Socialist Equality Party  LPNP  FFP  ASP  DLP  WKP  ALP  KAP  GRN  PUP AF  Australian Democrats  KAP  WKP  GRN  PUP  DLP  ALP  LPNP  FFP  ASP AF  Australian Democrats  KAP  WKP  GRN  PUP  DLP  LPNP  ALP  FFP  ASP AG    PUP  ALP  LPNP  GRN  WKP  KAP  ASP  FFP  DLP AH  Family First Party  FFP  ASP  KAP  DLP  PUP  WKP  LPNP  ALP  GRN AI  Stable Population Party  FFP  WKP  KAP  GRN  ALP  LPNP  DLP  ASP  PUP AI  Stable Population Party  FFP  WKP  KAP  ALP  GRN  LPNP  DLP  ASP  PUP AI  Stable Population Party  FFP  WKP  KAP  LPNP  GRN  ALP  DLP  ASP  PUP AJ  Shooters and Fishers  ASP  FFP  DLP  KAP  PUP  ALP  LPNP  WKP  GRN AK  Stop CSG  WKP  FFP  GRN  KAP  ALP  PUP  LPNP  DLP  ASP AL  The Australian Republicans  LPNP  WKP  GRN  ALP  KAP  PUP  FFP  ASP  DLP AM  Socialist Alliance  GRN  WKP  ALP  LPNP  DLP  KAP  PUP  ASP  FFP AN  Non-Custodial Parents Party (Equal Parenting)  WKP  FFP  DLP  ASP  PUP  KAP  LPNP  ALP  GRN AO  Pirate Party  GRN  WKP  DLP  ALP  ASP  LPNP  KAP  PUP  FFP AP  Secular Party of Australia  WKP  GRN  ALP  LPNP  PUP  KAP  ASP  DLP  FFP AQ  Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party  ASP  FFP  WKP  KAP  PUP  DLP  LPNP  ALP  GRN AR  One Nation  KAP  DLP  FFP  ASP  PUP  WKP  LPNP  ALP  GRN AR  One Nation  KAP  DLP  FFP  ASP  PUP  WKP  ALP  LPNP  GRN

WA Senate Group Preference Flow

The Greens are attacking Wikileaks for their preference allocation placing the National Party ahead of the Greens.claiming that Wikileaks party owes the Greens a better deal

The fact is that Wikileaks would have to be excluded from the count before the National Party and the irony of it is the more that the Greens attack Wikileaks the more likely a National Party could out-poll Wikileaks.  (This is unlikely)  the only way we can see the National Party out polling Wikileaks is if the Coalition handed out a separate HTV card urging its supporters in rural WA to vote for the Nationals thus upping their vote.  In 2010 the National polled less than 4%
 
The Greens think they are somehow a protected species.

To the Greens dismay Wikileaks is a competitor not a partner and is likely to win over the Greens in WA

ABC State Seat Historical voting statistics used asa base in analysis

You can play with the outcome using the ABC Senate calculator.  I suggest you start by allocating a percentage to Wikileaks and deducting that from the Greens vote and then adjust all other parties percentage to accommodate the other minor parties that are standing for the first time in WA

Western Australia

	Candidate	Party
1	David JOHNSTON	Liberal Party
2	Joe BULLOCK	Australian Labor Party
3	Michaelia CASH	Liberal Party
4	Linda REYNOLDS	Liberal Party
5	Louise PRATT	Australian Labor Party
6	Gerry GEORGATOS	The Wikileaks Party

ID    Group Name                                                    Preference Flow 

A	Smokers Rights	WKP	FFP	NP	LP	ALP	GRN
B	Liberal Democrats	WKP	FFP	NP	LP	ALP	GRN
C	Australian Christians	FFP	LP	NP	ALP	WKP	GRN
D	Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party	WKP	GRN	ALP	FFP	NP	LP
E	Socialist Equality Party	GRN	NP	ALP	LP	WKP	FFP
E	Socialist Equality Party	ALP	LP	WKP	FFP	GRN	NP
E	Socialist Equality Party	LP	WKP	FFP	GRN	NP	ALP
F	Palmer United Party	FFP	WKP	GRN	NP	LP	ALP
G	Shooters and Fishers	FFP	LP	NP	ALP	WKP	GRN
H	Australian Voice Party	FFP	WKP	NP	LP	ALP	GRN
I	Sex Party	WKP	GRN	ALP	NP	LP	FFP
J	Secular Party of Australia	WKP	GRN	ALP	NP	LP	FFP
K	Australian Independents	FFP	WKP	GRN	NP	LP	ALP
L	The Wikileaks Party	WKP	NP	GRN	ALP	LP	FFP
M	Katter's Australian Party	WKP	FFP	LP	NP	GRN	ALP
N	Family First Party	FFP	WKP	LP	NP	ALP	GRN
O	No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics	FFP	WKP	NP	LP	ALP	GRN
P	Stable Population Party	WKP	FFP	GRN	ALP	LP	NP
P	Stable Population Party	WKP	FFP	ALP	GRN	LP	NP
P	Stable Population Party	WKP	FFP	LP	GRN	ALP	NP
Q	Stop The Greens	WKP	FFP	NP	LP	ALP	GRN
R	Australian Democrats	WKP	GRN	ALP	LP	NP	FFP
R	Australian Democrats	WKP	GRN	LP	ALP	NP	FFP
S	The Greens (WA)	GRN	WKP	ALP	FFP	NP	LP
T	Animal Justice Party	WKP	FFP	GRN	ALP	LP	NP
U	The Nationals	NP	LP	WKP	FFP	ALP	GRN
V	Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party	FFP	LP	NP	ALP	WKP	GRN
W	Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party	FFP	WKP	NP	ALP	LP	GRN
W	Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party	FFP	WKP	NP	LP	ALP	GRN
X	Australian Sports Party	WKP	FFP	NP	LP	GRN	ALP
Y	Rise Up Australia Party	FFP	LP	NP	ALP	WKP	GRN
Z	Australian Labor Party	ALP	GRN	WKP	FFP	NP	LP
AA	Liberal	LP	NP	FFP	ALP	WKP	GRN