The next Federal Election will be a double dissolution. Neither the ALP or the LNP will want half senate election to take place.
The longevity of this parliament will very much depend on the ability of the Greens to compromise and gain balance in its policies. Past indications are that they will not. (The CTS for example). Should the Greens not be in a position to accept compromise or moderation of its demands Australia will go back to the polls within 18 months.
Come July 1 Tony Abbott will up the pressure on the government, warranted or not he is in a strong position and within a heart beat of bringing down the current minority government. As long as the LNP with the support of Steve Fielding (Family First) holds the balance of power Abbott will bide his time chipping away at the governments claim to be a legitimate government (Even though it rightly so).
Gillard is without any doubt the most capable member of the ALP caucus to lead a minority government. Her style of leadership and ability to negotiate is the ALPs greatest strength. Gillard is a very competent and skilled player in that respect.
Having the constitutional right to call a double dissolution would be in the interest of both the ALP and the LNP.
Whoever calls the next election will be in the best position to win it. If the election is forced by Tony Abbott he will be the most likely to win. The same could be the case for Gillard.
The slogan “This time I will vote Green” will soon become “Last time I voted Green, I will not make the same mistake next time”
The main concern about the outcome of a double dissolution is that analysis of the Victorian and South Australian countsindicates that Family First will be re-elected assuming preference fold ups remain the same. In Victoria Family First at a double dissolution would be elected in place of the DLP.
In discussion with LNP scrutineers on Friday it as clear that they were having second thoughts about preferencing the Greens ahead of the ALP. I am sure they will think twice before making that mistake a second time. The outcome of the Federal election has also raised questions and doubt whether then LNP will preference the Greens in the Victorian State elections scheduled for November 27.
At the next Federal Election we can anticipate that the Green vote will drop significantly back to below 10%
As long as minor parties continue to cross preference each other and the Christian parties (Family First, DLP and Fred Nile) support each other they will remain ahead of the pack with a strong chance of securing representation in the various upper house elections that will follow. Above the line voting giving strength and cohesion to their vote.