Saturday, 28 September 2013

Western Australia 93% Counted Analysis: Greens Traped in the Wasted Quota

There is not enough value in the BTL votes to allow for the Greens to be elected. The Greens would have to poll over 50% of the notional ALP BTL preference allocations Most of which have past through the the Liberal Party and are at a lower value

This is a seat where the potential for for a different outcome could have been influenced by system of Surplus Transfer Value calculation and the Segmentation distribution of excluded candidates.

I preferred method of counting the vote would be to use weighted transfer calculation and implement a reiterative distribution count, where the vote is reset and restarted on each exclusion. One singe transaction, surplus distributions only per iteration.

I expect the out come to be
Liberals 3
and either Palmer United or Liberal Democrats

If the AEC provided scrutineers copies of the BTL preference data filea we would know exactly the outcome. the fact that the AEC has not subjected copies of the BTL preference files to independent scrutiny has and continues to bring the election into disrepute.

No comments: