There is not enough value in the BTL votes to allow for the Greens to be elected. The Greens would have to poll over 50% of the notional ALP BTL preference allocations Most of which have past through the the Liberal Party and are at a lower value
This is a seat where the potential for for a different outcome could
have been influenced by system of Surplus Transfer Value calculation and
the Segmentation distribution of excluded candidates.
I preferred method of counting the vote would be to use weighted
transfer calculation and implement a reiterative distribution count,
where the vote is reset and restarted on each exclusion. One singe
transaction, surplus distributions only per iteration.
I expect the out come to be
and either Palmer United or Liberal Democrats
If the AEC provided scrutineers copies of the BTL preference data
filea we would know exactly the outcome. the fact that the AEC has not
subjected copies of the BTL preference files to independent scrutiny has
and continues to bring the election into disrepute.