Friday, 23 August 2013

Greens facing the prospect of losing seats to Wikileaks go on the attack

The Greens are facing defeat in Western Australia, New South Wales and Queensland.  Their greatest threat is from Wikileaks Party

The Greens could also lose a seat to Assange in Victoria should the ALP surplus and the Greens primary vote fall below 14% however the odds are in favour of the Greens winning in Victoria on the back of ALP preferences.

In a surprised turn of events Family First is also in the running to win seats in Victoria taking a seat from Liberal Party's Helen  Kroger and possibly one in Western Australia.

Vote Wikileaks and Family First are well placed to take advantage of above the line group voting tickets

The Greens are desperate to try and discredit Wikileaks that they are going around pushing false statement and claims that a vote for Wikileaks is a vote for Tony Abbott,  This is not the case.

In all analyses using the ABC Senate Calculator and our own database Wikileaks preferences do not  impact on the coalition votes at all. Wikileaks could help Sex Party gain a senate seat in NSW again at the expense of the Greens

Our analysis was done by allocating 3-4% to wikileaks and reducing the Greens vote and adjusting prefernces for other parties to take into account expected votes allocatd to new partis such as Clive Palmer, Bob Katter and the Sex Party to determine the required thresholds and shifts in the polls.
The Greens are expected only to hold on to a seat in South Australia, Tasmania and Victoria


Candidate Party
1 Mitch FIFIELD Liberal Party
2 Gavin MARSHALL Australian Labor Party
3 Scott RYAN Liberal Party
4 Jacinta COLLINS Australian Labor Party
5 Ashley FENN Family First Party
6 Julian ASSANGE The Wikileaks Party  * 
* Wikeleaks most likely to lose out to Greens on the back of ALP Surplus preferences

New South Wales

Candidate Party
1 Marise PAYNE Liberal Party
2 Bob CARR Australian Labor Party
3 John WILLIAMS The Nationals
4 Doug CAMERON Australian Labor Party
5 Arthur SINODINOS Liberal Party
6 Graeme DUNNE Australian Sex Party

Western Asutralia

Candidate Party
1 David JOHNSTON Liberal Party
2 Joe BULLOCK Australian Labor Party
3 Michaelia CASH Liberal Party
4 Linda REYNOLDS Liberal Party
5 Louise PRATT Australian Labor Party
6 Gerry GEORGATOS The Wikileaks Party


Candidate Party
1 Ian MACDONALD Liberal National Party
2 Chris KETTER Australian Labor Party
3 James McGRATH Liberal National Party
4 Claire MOORE Australian Labor Party
5 Matthew CANAVAN Liberal National Party
6 Aidan McLINDON Family First Party
* Family First most likely to lose out to Greens in a close election for te last seat

South Australia

Candidate Party
1 Penny WONG Australian Labor Party
2 Cory BERNARDI Liberal Party
3 Don FARRELL Australian Labor Party
4 Simon BIRMINGHAM Liberal Party
5 Nick XENOPHON Nick Xenophon Group
6 Sarah HANSON-YOUNG Australian Greens


Candidate Party
1 Carol BROWN Australian Labor Party
2 Richard COLBECK Liberal Party
3 Peter WHISH-WILSON Australian Greens
4 Catryna BILYK Australian Labor Party
5 David BUSHBY Liberal Party
6 Lin THORP Australian Labor Party

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