Saturday, 24 August 2013

NSW Senate Group Preference Flow

Sex Party has the potential of being elected in NSW based on analysis of the Group ticket preferences

The Liberal party is expected to win three Senate seats and the ALP should hold on to two seats,  The battle for the last seat will be determined on preferences with the Greens falling below quota. The Greens do not favour well on the preference flow with Wikileaks and Sex Party place a head of the Greens if the Greens are unable to secure a quota in their own right and the ALP surplus is low then Sex Party is best placed to win its first Senate seat in NSW

Analyses undertaken using the ABC Senate calculator based on 2010 Figures with adjustments to take into consideration new parties and shift in support from the ALP to the  Liberal Party.  Support for Wikileaks is expected to come primarily from the Greens Primary vote which explains why thw Greens are hell bent on attacking Wikileaks where possible.

See ABC State Seat Historical voting statistics used as a base in analysis

New South Wales

Candidate Party
1 Marise PAYNE Liberal Party
2 Bob CARR Australian Labor Party
3 John WILLIAMS The Nationals
4 Doug CAMERON Australian Labor Party
5 Arthur SINODINOS Liberal Party
6 Graeme DUNNE Australian Sex Party

Group Ticket Preference Flow

ID  Group Name Group Preference Flow
 A  Liberal Democrats  WKP  KAP  PUP  DLP  FFP  LPNP  ASP  ALP  GRN
 B  No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics  ASP  DLP  FFP  WKP  KAP  PUP  ALP  LPNP  GRN
 C  Democratic Labour Party (DLP)  DLP  KAP  FFP  PUP  ASP  ALP  LPNP  WKP  GRN
 D  Senator Online (Internet Voting Bills/Issues)  ASP  FFP  WKP  PUP  KAP  DLP  ALP  LPNP  GRN
 E  Voluntary Euthanasia Party  WKP  GRN  PUP  KAP  DLP  ASP  FFP  ALP  LPNP
 G  Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party  WKP  KAP  GRN  ALP  ASP  FFP  DLP  PUP  LPNP
 G  Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party  WKP  KAP  ALP  GRN  ASP  FFP  DLP  PUP  LPNP
 G  Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party  WKP  KAP  GRN  ALP  ASP  FFP  DLP  PUP  LPNP
 H  Carers Alliance  LPNP  WKP  DLP  FFP  ALP  ASP  PUP  KAP  GRN
 I  The Wikileaks Party  WKP  ASP  GRN  ALP  FFP  DLP  LPNP  PUP  KAP
 J  Rise Up Australia Party  DLP  FFP  ASP  LPNP  PUP  KAP  ALP  WKP  GRN
 K  Future Party  WKP  GRN  ALP  LPNP  PUP  ASP  KAP  DLP  FFP
 L  Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group)  ASP  KAP  DLP  FFP  PUP  LPNP  ALP  WKP  GRN
 N  Katter's Australian Party  KAP  DLP  PUP  WKP  ASP  FFP  LPNP  ALP  GRN
 O  Australian Voice  ASP  FFP  WKP  DLP  PUP  KAP  LPNP  ALP  GRN
 Q  Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party  ASP  FFP  DLP  KAP  PUP  ALP  LPNP  WKP  GRN
 S  Palmer United Party  PUP  FFP  LPNP  DLP  WKP  KAP  GRN  ASP  ALP
 T  Building Australia Party  FFP  ASP  WKP  DLP  KAP  PUP  LPNP  ALP  GRN
 U  Uniting Australia Party  ASP  WKP  FFP  DLP  KAP  LPNP  ALP  GRN  PUP
 V  Stop The Greens  WKP  KAP  PUP  DLP  FFP  LPNP  ASP  ALP  GRN
 W  Smokers Rights  WKP  KAP  PUP  DLP  FFP  LPNP  ASP  ALP  GRN
 X  Bullet Train For Australia  WKP  DLP  ASP  FFP  KAP  PUP  GRN  ALP  LPNP
 Z  Australian Protectionist Party  KAP  ASP  DLP  FFP  PUP  WKP  LPNP  ALP  GRN
AA  Animal Justice Party  FFP  WKP  PUP  GRN  ALP  LPNP  DLP  KAP  ASP
AB  Australia First Party  FFP  ASP  WKP  KAP  DLP  PUP  ALP  LPNP  GRN
AC  Australian Independents  ASP  FFP  WKP  DLP  KAP  PUP  GRN  LPNP  ALP
AE  Socialist Equality Party  ALP  KAP  GRN  PUP  LPNP  FFP  ASP  DLP  WKP
AE  Socialist Equality Party  GRN  PUP  LPNP  FFP  ASP  DLP  WKP  ALP  KAP
AE  Socialist Equality Party  LPNP  FFP  ASP  DLP  WKP  ALP  KAP  GRN  PUP
AF  Australian Democrats  KAP  WKP  GRN  PUP  DLP  ALP  LPNP  FFP  ASP
AF  Australian Democrats  KAP  WKP  GRN  PUP  DLP  LPNP  ALP  FFP  ASP
AH  Family First Party  FFP  ASP  KAP  DLP  PUP  WKP  LPNP  ALP  GRN
AI  Stable Population Party  FFP  WKP  KAP  GRN  ALP  LPNP  DLP  ASP  PUP
AI  Stable Population Party  FFP  WKP  KAP  ALP  GRN  LPNP  DLP  ASP  PUP
AI  Stable Population Party  FFP  WKP  KAP  LPNP  GRN  ALP  DLP  ASP  PUP
AJ  Shooters and Fishers  ASP  FFP  DLP  KAP  PUP  ALP  LPNP  WKP  GRN
AL  The Australian Republicans  LPNP  WKP  GRN  ALP  KAP  PUP  FFP  ASP  DLP
AM  Socialist Alliance  GRN  WKP  ALP  LPNP  DLP  KAP  PUP  ASP  FFP
AN  Non-Custodial Parents Party (Equal Parenting)  WKP  FFP  DLP  ASP  PUP  KAP  LPNP  ALP  GRN
AP  Secular Party of Australia  WKP  GRN  ALP  LPNP  PUP  KAP  ASP  DLP  FFP
AQ  Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party  ASP  FFP  WKP  KAP  PUP  DLP  LPNP  ALP  GRN

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