An more likely alternative possible outcome is Family First to replace Rise Up Australia in winning the sixth last seat on the back of LNP preferences
Posted by: demcracyATwork | August 20, 2013 at 02:02 AM
| Candidate | Group |
|---|---|
| FIFIELD, Mitch | Liberal |
| MARSHALL, Gavin | Australian Labor Party |
| RYAN, Scott | Liberal |
| COLLINS, Jacinta | Australian Labor Party |
| ASSANGE, Julian | The Wikileaks Party |
| NALLIAH, Daniel or FENN, Ashley |
Rise Up Australia Party Family First |
Victoria
| Percentage | Group | Group Name | Ticket |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.03 | Group A | RISE UP AUSTRALIA PARTY | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.0007 | Group D | SENATOR ONLINE (INTERNET VOTING BILLS/ISSUES) | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.35 | Group E | LIBERAL/THE NATIONALS | Ticket 1 of 2 |
| Group E | LIBERAL/THE NATIONALS | Ticket 2 of 2 | |
| 0.001 | Group F | HELP END MARIJUANA PROHIBITION (HEMP) PARTY | Ticket 1 of 3 |
| Group F | HELP END MARIJUANA PROHIBITION (HEMP) PARTY | Ticket 2 of 3 | |
| Group F | HELP END MARIJUANA PROHIBITION (HEMP) PARTY | Ticket 3 of 3 | |
| 0.02 | Group G | FAMILY FIRST | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.001 | Group H | COUNTRY ALLIANCE | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.0011 | Group I | SECULAR PARTY OF AUSTRALIA | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.0007 | Group J | NO CARBON TAX CLIMATE SCEPTICS | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.002 | Group K | BANK REFORM PARTY | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.001 | Group L | STABLE POPULATION PARTY | Ticket 1 of 3 |
| Group L | STABLE POPULATION PARTY | Ticket 2 of 3 | |
| Group L | STABLE POPULATION PARTY | Ticket 3 of 3 | |
| 0.0015 | Group N | AUSTRALIAN FISHING AND LIFESTYLE PARTY | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.015 | Group O | SHOOTERS AND FISHERS | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.0015 | Group P | BUILDING AUSTRALIA PARTY | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.0008 | Group Q | AUSTRALIAN VOICE PARTY | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.002 | Group R | AUSTRALIAN INDEPENDENTS | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.08 | Group S | THE GREENS | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.001 | Group T | Ticket 1 of 1 | |
| 0.003 | Group U | STOP CSG | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.01 | Group V | KATTER'S AUSTRALIAN PARTY | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.01 | Group W | PALMER UNITED PARTY | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.005 | Group Y | ANIMAL JUSTICE PARTY | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.001 | Group Z | AUSTRALIAN MOTORING ENTHUSIAST PARTY | Ticket 1 of 2 |
| Group Z | AUSTRALIAN MOTORING ENTHUSIAST PARTY | Ticket 2 of 2 | |
| 0.035 | Group AA | THE WIKILEAKS PARTY | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.0049 | Group AB | AUSTRALIAN DEMOCRATS | Ticket 1 of 2 |
| Group AB | AUSTRALIAN DEMOCRATS | Ticket 2 of 2 | |
| 0.035 | Group AC | SEX PARTY | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.33 | Group AD | AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.001 | Group AF | DRUG LAW REFORM | Ticket 1 of 2 |
| Group AF | DRUG LAW REFORM | Ticket 2 of 2 | |
| 0.001 | Group AG | BULLET TRAIN FOR AUSTRALIA | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.007 | Group AH | AUSTRALIAN CHRISTIANS | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| Group AI | CITIZENS ELECTORAL COUNCIL | Ticket 1 of 2 | |
| 0.0007 | Group AI | CITIZENS ELECTORAL COUNCIL | Ticket 2 of 2 |
| 0.001 | Group AJ | Ticket 1 of 1 | |
| 0.0032 | Group AK | SOCIALIST EQUALITY PARTY | Ticket 1 of 3 |
| Group AK | SOCIALIST EQUALITY PARTY | Ticket 2 of 3 | |
| Group AK | SOCIALIST EQUALITY PARTY | Ticket 3 of 3 | |
| 0.02 | Group AL | PIRATE PARTY | Ticket 1 of 1 |
| 0.02 | Group AM | DLP DEMOCRATIC LABOUR | Ticket 1 of 1 |
Whilst the ALP has directly preferenced the Greens in the Victorian Senate this does not guarantee the Greens a seat. The Greens would have ot poll above 9% primary support to benefit from an estimated 4-5% ALP Surplus.
Analysis of the registered above-the-line ticket votes shows if Wikileaks are able to peg back the Greens to below 8% and can secure 4% primary vote they can come from behind and force the Greens into becoming the wasted Quota. The ALP is expected to poll around 32% with a minimal surplus to transfer to the Greens. Wikileaks collects preferences from all other groups and outpolsl the Greens who become the wasted quota.
It is also possible for the Raise Up Australia Party or Family First in Victoria to win a seat from the Liberal Party. In 2010 the LNP polled 34% The LNP need over 39% to win a third senate spot
Rise Up Australia and Family First are well placed in preferences of the registered tickets to come from a low base of 2-3% and win the sixth seat on the back of Liberal Party Surpluses and support from the other christian religious based ground. Traditionally the Christan lobby represent around 405% of the overall vote. With Gay marriage an issue there support will be consolidated. They are a well organized and motivated network and have shown they are capable of manning the polling booths. Being placed first on the left hand side of the ballot paper also gives Rise Up Australia marginal advantage with the donkey vote