Tuesday, 20 August 2013

Rise Up Australia: The Battle for the Balance of Power in the Senate

The Greens can lose a seat in Victoria, under threat by Wikileaks Party

Whilst the ALP has directly preferenced the Greens in the Victorian Senate this does not guarantee the Greens a seat. The Greens would have ot poll above 9% primary support to benefit from an estimated 4-5% ALP Surplus.

Analysis of the registered above-the-line ticket votes shows if Wikileaks are able to peg back the Greens to below 8% and can secure 4% primary vote they can come from behind and force the Greens into becoming the wasted Quota. The ALP is expected to poll around 32% with a minimal surplus to transfer to the Greens. Wikileaks collects preferences from all other groups and outpolsl the Greens who become the wasted quota.

It is also possible for the Raise Up Australia Party or Family First in Victoria to win a seat from the Liberal Party. In 2010 the LNP polled 34% The LNP need over 39% to win a third senate spot

Rise Up Australia and Family First are well placed in preferences of the registered tickets to come from a low base of 2-3% and win the sixth seat on the back of Liberal Party Surpluses and support from the other christian religious based ground. Traditionally the Christan lobby represent around 405% of the overall vote.  With Gay marriage an issue there support will be consolidated. They are a well organized and motivated network and have shown they are capable of manning the polling booths. Being placed first on the left hand side of the ballot paper also gives Rise Up Australia marginal advantage with the donkey vote

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