Monday, 26 August 2013

TAS Senate Group Preference Flow

It is said that Everybody in Tasmania has a member of the family in public office. It is the most over governed state in Australia. The home of Bob Brown fomer leader and patron of the Greens and maverick Member for Denison, Andrew Wilkie.

The Greens are expected to lose support this round but will still remain above quota

The question is will the ALP hold on to three seats or will they lose a seat to an independent group? 

The Liberal Party is expected to retain two senate seats. Prefernce flows are a mixed batch with the ALP having the edge over the Liberal Party.  We expect no change in overall results between 2010 and 2013 

However that is all ways depends on the extent of the swing against the ALP who also holds control of the State Parliament. Family First has a chance.  Had Wikileaks ran in this seat then this State would have been much more interesting to watch.

ABC State Seat Historical voting statistics used as a base in analysis and ABC Senate Calculator


Candidate Party
1 Carol BROWN Australian Labor Party
2 Richard COLBECK Liberal Party
3 Peter WHISH-WILSON Australian Greens
4 Catryna BILYK Australian Labor Party
5 David BUSHBY Liberal Party
6 Lin THORP Australian Labor Party

ID Group Name Group Preference Flow
 A Country Alliance  ASXP   LP   AFLP   ALP   ODR   FFP   GRN
 B Liberal Democrats  ODR   FFP   ASXP   AFLP   LP   ALP   GRN
 C Australian Labor Party  ALP   GRN   ASXP   FFP   ODR   AFLP   LP
 D Rise Up Australia Party  FFP   AFLP   ODR   LP   ALP   ASXP   GRN
 E Liberal  LP   FFP   AFLP   ODR   ALP   ASXP   GRN
 F Palmer United Party  FFP   GRN   ASXP   AFLP   ODR   LP   ALP
 G Australian Christians  FFP   AFLP   LP   ODR   ALP   GRN   ASXP
 H DLP Democratic Labour  AFLP   ODR   FFP   LP   ALP   ASXP   GRN
 I Pirate Party  GRN   ASXP   AFLP   ALP   LP   ODR   FFP
 J Australian Greens  GRN   ASXP   ALP   FFP   LP   AFLP   ODR
 K Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party  ASXP   AFLP   ALP   GRN   FFP   ODR   LP
 L Shooters and Fishers  AFLP   ASXP   FFP   ODR   ALP   LP   GRN
 M Australian Independents  FFP   ASXP   AFLP   ODR   GRN   LP   ALP
 N Sex Party  ASXP   AFLP   ALP   GRN   LP   ODR   FFP
 O Senator Online (Internet Voting Bills/Issues)  AFLP   FFP   ASXP   ODR   GRN   ALP   LP
 P Katter's Australian Party  FFP   AFLP   ODR   LP   GRN   ALP   ASXP
 Q No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics  FFP   AFLP   ASXP   ODR   ALP   LP   GRN
 R Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party  AFLP   FFP   ASXP   ODR   ALP   LP   GRN
 S Stable Population Party  ASXP   AFLP   FFP   GRN   ALP   LP   ODR
 S Stable Population Party  ASXP   AFLP   FFP   ALP   LP   GRN   ODR
 S Stable Population Party  ASXP   AFLP   FFP   LP   GRN   ALP   ODR
 U The Australian Republicans  ODR   ASXP   FFP   AFLP   LP   ALP   GRN
 V Smokers Rights  FFP   AFLP   ODR   LP   ALP   GRN   ASXP
 W Family First  ODR   FFP   ASXP   AFLP   LP   ALP   GRN

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